PMP: Probable Maximum Precipitation

This page provides supplemental resources to accompany the Australian Water School’s premium webinar “Probable Maximum Precipitation in a Changing Climate“, addressing the 2024 Australian Rainfall and Runoff climate change updates as they relate to PMP estimates. Register for the webinar here:

Our premium PMP webinar accompanies the free AWS webinar “What the PMF“, addressing the Probable Maximum Flood:

The 2024 climate change updates to ARR were covered in this webinar, presented by the authors of the ARR climate change chapter:

Both webinars support a training course dedicated to the estimation of extreme events in Australia: ARR Course #6: Extreme Events

Download Rory Nathan’s Presentation Slides

Download Daryl Lam’s Presentation Slides

Download Krey Price’s Presentation Slides

Previous webinars

Hear an overview of ARR Course #6 covering ARR Book 8: Extreme events

Learn about climate change impacts on extreme event hydrology, including the PMF

Daryl Lam discusses palaeoflood hydrology, which can be used as a reality check for extreme flood estimates

Learn about GLOFs and other events that can exceed PMF estimates by orders of magnitude!

extreme events in australia

Download ARR A Guide to Flood Estimation Book 8: Estimation of very rare to extreme floods:

[Citation: Nathan, R. and Weinmann, P.E. (2019): Book 8 – Estimation of Very Rare to Extreme Floods in Ball J, Babister M, Nathan R, Weeks W, Weinmann E, Retallick M, Testoni I, (Editors), Australian Rainfall and Runoff: A Guide to Flood Estimation. Commonwealth of Australia (Geosciences Australia). ISBN 978-1-925297-07-2.]

Flood events in Australia in 2022 exceeded the highest precipitation and runoff on record in some areas. Background details on the events are available here. View our free webinar recording covering the flood events below:

Australian Bureau of Meteorology web page covering the greatest observed rainfall in Australia and worldwide:

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Webpage covering Probable Maximum Precipitation, including GSDM, GTSMR, and GSAM methods:

RORY NATHAN PUBLICATIONS:

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 2021: Incorporating Climate Change in Flood Estimation Guidance

Australasian Journal of Water Resources, 2005: Temporal patterns for the derivation of PMPDF and PMF estimates in the GTSM region of Australia

ANCOLD, 2003: Rainfall Depths and Temporal Patterns for Short-Duration Extreme Events

Journal of Hydrology, December 2016: Estimating the Exceedance Probability of Extreme Rainfalls up to the Probable Maximum Precipitation

ANCOLD, 2011: Achieving Consistency in Derivation of the Probable Maximum Flood

Nathan, R.J., Hill, P.I. and Griffith, H. (2002): Risk Implications of the PMF and the PMP Design Flood ANCOLD Bulletin – Issue No. 121, 47-53.

Lang, S., Nathan, R., Shea, D. O., Scorah, M., Zhang, J., Kuczera, G., & Schaefer, M. (2019). Estimating Extreme Rainfall Probabilities for Large Catchments in Northern Australia. Proc. ANCOLD Conference. 10th-11th October 2019, Auckland.

Nathan, R.J., Weinmann, P.E., and Gato, S (1994): A quick method for estimation of the probable maximum flood in south-east Australia. International Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Water Down Under, November, Adelaide, I.E. Aust. Natl. Conf. Publ. No. /94, 229-234. See also Nathan, R.J., Weinmann, P.E., and Minty, L. (1999): Estimation of the Annual Exceedance Probability of Probable Maximum Precipitation in South East Australia, Aus J Water Resources 3(1), 143-154.

DARYL LAM PUBLICATIONS:

Lam, D, RX., 2017. Extreme Flood Events in South East Queensland: Evidence and Implications. PhD Dissertation, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland.

Lam, D., Thompson, C., Croke, J., Sharma, A. and Macklin, M., 2017. Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: the contribution of palaeoflood and historical flood information. Water Resource Research, doi:10.1002/2016WR019959

Quaternary Science Reviews, 2020: Holocene palaeohydrology of the East Alligator River

Lam, D., Thompson, C., & Croke, J., 2016. Improving at-site flood frequency analysis with additional spatial information: a probabilistic regional envelope curve approach. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 1-21, doi: 10.1007/s00477-016-1303-x.

Australian Journal of Water Resources, April 2020: Improving Australia’s Flood Record for Planning Purposes

krey price publications:

This 2020 International Mine Water Association paper discusses the merits and challenges associated with designing infrastructure for PMF events:

This 2018 HWRS paper addresses event-based versus duration-based assessments for extreme design events:

This April 2019 Engineers Australia seminar discusses the question of event-based versus duration-based assessments for extreme events…with a wide range of possible answers: